Randi Set To Lose the Million Dollar Challenge

Judging on Paul the "psychic" Octopus's current form, pundits have tipped him to win the Million Dollar Challenge.

P.Z. Myers is rumoured to be coaching the cephalopod in preparation for the challenge.

Hat Tip: Dr*T

Connie Sonne, The Million Dollar Challenge & Skeptical Heresy?

Anyone who reads this blog should be familiar with James Randi’s $1 Million challenge. However, on the off chance that you’re new to this sort of thing…..

The Amazing Randi has a fund of $1 Million dollars that he is fully prepared to give away to anyone who can demonstrate paranormal or psychic abilities under agreed scientifically controlled conditions. Obviously no one has every succeeded or you’d have heard about it by now.

Anyway, on Sunday 12th July 2009 a preliminary test for the $1 Million challenge was held in front of a live audience in the Conference Room at the South Point Hotel Casino and Spa in Las Vegas Nevada as part of “The Amazing Meeting 7”.

The challenger, Connie Sonne, claims to have the ability to be able to find certain playing cards by dowsing for them. The test conditions that she signed up to consisted of dowsing for randomly selected playing cards between 1 (an Ace) and 10, three times for three different suits. The picture cards were discarded and the deck sorted into the 4 suits, the cards within each suit were shuffled and each card was placed separately inside 2 sealed envelopes and then all the envelopes containing the 10 cards of each suit where placed inside a larger envelope for that suit. Three suits were selected randomly, then a specific card within each suit was chosen using a ten sided die. For each of three selected suits the 10 envelopes containing each card were placed in-front of Connie in a semi circle. Connie then doused for the required cards. It was agreed that Connie would need to correctly locate all 3 cards to successfully pass the challenge.

Although I was not fortunate enough to be there, I was able to watch the challenge on a live video stream. As a grumpy, seasoned old skeptic, you may well have expected me to be eagerly hoping for Connie to fail the challenge so I could once again confirm my beliefs in the non existence of such silly stuff. However, much to my surprise, as my wife and I both watched events unfold; I was mentally cheering Connie on, actually hoping that she would succeed.

Connie looked confident and had a pleasant demeanour but unfortunately failed to correctly locate any of the 3 cards and so failed the Challenge. As with many challengers, I got the impression that she genuinely believed in her claimed abilities rather than being a simple fraudster.

A week or so after the challenge, I was delighted to hear Swoopy speaking on the Skepticality podcast saying that she too was hoping for Connie to succeed, which caused me to reflect on things.

I may indeed be a grumpy old skeptic, but as a supporter of the scientific method, I’m perfectly willing to accept that I might be wrong and that I may have to reconsider my beliefs in the light of any new valid and contrary evidence.


So what would happen if Connie, or someone else, did succeed in the preliminary challenge?

Well for a start we would have to take their claim seriously. More rigorous tests and experiments would be required. If success turned out to be unrepeatable and down to fraud or pure chance then that’s just more evidence against an irrational belief. But if the claims of the challengers turned out to be true, that would be completely amazing and I would be quite tizzy with excitement.

Science would be forced to investigate the phenomenon in more detail so the effect can be fully explained and understood. As a result scientific understanding would eventually leap forward and embrace this new knowledge with all of the benefits and advantages that scientific advancement brings. Of course this is pretty unlikely, and much money and resources have been wasted by governments and organisation chasing wild geese before. However, the beauty of the million dollar challenge, is that the critical thinking skills of those at the JREF make it less likely that we are duped into wasting valuable time and resources chasing rainbows. But if someone did get through, that would most definitely not be #JREF fail, it would be very existing stuff indeed.

So either way, the million dollar challenge can't lose, it either continues to support and provide further evidence for the current scientific consensus against the existence of paranormal phenomenon, or it opens the door to a whole new sphere of valid and worthwhile scientific research, and that’s worth 1 million of anyone’s dollars.

Organised skepticism has made me more open-minded…

…although, as the old adage goes, not so open minded that my brains will fall out. Even though I used to hold religious beliefs, I have always been sceptical of superstitious and paranormal beliefs. As a kid I never worried about stepping on the cracks in the pavement and I made a point of walking under ladders. Although in hindsight even though I still believe this wouldn’t have affected my luck, it may well have increased the probability that something might land on my head.

I have fed my sceptical viewpoint for years with scientific reading, but only in the last year or so have I been partaking in Skeptical fellowship via the medium of lectures, talks, Skeptics in the Pub and Podcasts. These organised sceptical events and broadcasts have proved valuable resources in widening my understanding and appreciation, but they have not made me more dismissive of the claims of believers, in fact the complete opposite is true.

It would be all too easy to counter claims of psychic abilities or paranormal forces with un-investigated denial. All previous attempts to validate such claims have been successfully rebutted, why waste time even considering the possibility that such claims could be true? I’ve come to see that taking such a stance would be taking a non-scientific approach and would open me up to valid criticisms that I accept my sceptical views on faith. Fortunately scientists like Richard Wiseman aren’t afraid to conduct such experiments and whilst I’ve yet to see evidence to support the claims of believers, results still reveal placebo effects and other surprising details attributed to additional factors that may have not been considered otherwise.

For example, scientific evidence to date shows that it is easily possible to walk a short distance barefoot across hot coals due to the rate the heat is conducted through the coals and the feet. However longer exposure will result in burns, so when a believer claims their spirit guide can allow them to walk further, don’t just dismiss the claim. If nothing else it provides excellent entertainment watching them burn their feet, and if they succeed, then that’s an area worth further serious scientific investigation.

Taking some claims seriously and investigating them may reveal genuine benefits for those irrational beliefs. Maybe your psychic or astrologer is giving you sound valuable advice, despite their dubious methods. Maybe your belief in alternative medicine is providing a powerful placebo effect. Although on balance I still think such beliefs do more harm than good. (Check out Whatstheharm for numerous examples), the argument is perhaps not as one sided as I once thought.

I’m writing this blog on the day that Patricia Putt is taking James Randi’s Million Dollar challenge for her claimed psychic abilities. Although I am fully confident that Randi’s fund is safe, I'm not so arrogant to mention her failure without first checking the results. (0/10)

So for those believers who claim the rise in organised scepticism is promoting closed minds, I beg to differ.